1 April 2020
PIA Economic Report For The Printing Industry
WARRENDALE—
PIA economic forecast for the printing industry
 
 The key economic question as we approach mid year is external risks abound the  uncertain  spread and impact of the coronavirus, supply chain disruptions from the virus, trade tensions, a price war on oil,the aging of the expansion. Our current economic dashboard signifies the chance of a recession in the economy in the next 12 months at 30 percent. At the same time the chance of a slowing but still growing sluggish scenario is 35 per cent. In total, the likelihood of a decline, no growth, or very slow growth is almost 70 percent.
 
As the likelihood of these two scenarios has increased, the odds of accelerated growth or even  modest  growth  over  the  next  12 months  have  decreased  to  10  per cent  and  25  percent respectively. As of mid March the  most  likely  path  forward  is  the  sluggish  scenario  combined  with  a  quick recession which is just about baked in for the immediate future. First quarter growth will probably measure  around 1 percent  followed  by  a slight contraction of less than 1
percent  in  the  second quarter. Growth should resume by the third quarter. While this trajectory is probable,there is a broad range of outcomes given the volatility of the situation.So,what  transpires  with  print  markets  in  each  of  these  scenarios?  Most  importantly,  remember that when the economy goes up print goes up but at a lesser pace. In contrast, when the economy goes  down  print  slumps  at  a  bigger  pace.  As  a  result, print’s  performance in the four  scenarios ranges from a high of 2 percent growth to a low of 2 percent (or more) decline. For the full report go to www.printing.org
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